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    10/18/2007

    概率、信息和熵

    以前写过一篇关于最大熵模型的读书笔记。刚翻陈家鼎和郑忠国两位老师合编的教材《概率与统计》(北大出版社,2007),看到关于信息熵的详细数学表述,不妨转述一下,算是不在场的课堂笔记。

    概率与信息

    事件A的概率P(A)是A发生可能性的大小的度量。

    问题:A的发生带给我们多大的信息呢?

    结论

    P(A)越大,则A发生带来的信息越少;反之,P(A)越小,则A的发生带来的信息越大。

    例子

    有人对你说“某日巴西足球队战胜了中国队”,你觉得他没有给你多少信息,因为这件事发生的概率非常大,结果几乎在预料当中。但如果他说巴西负于某个亚洲队,你会感觉得到的信息不少。

    猜想

    1. 事件A发生所带来的信息量H(A)应该是它发生的概率P(A)的严格减函数,而且A是必然事件时H(A)=0(“巴西队战胜中国队”)。
    2. 若事件A与事件B相互独立,则A与B都发生带来的信息量应该是H(A)与H(B)之和,即H(AB)=H(A)+H(B)。

    引理1—H(u)=-clnu

    设H(u)是(0,1]上的严格减函数,H(1)=0,则为了满足H(uv)=H(u)+H(v),对一切0<u,v<1,必须且只需存在c>0,使得H(u)=-clnu,写得更清楚些是—c*ln(u)。

    (这里c是一个正的常数,它的大小涉及信息量的单位。为简单起见,一般取c=1)

    定义1—信息量的表示

    设事件A的概率是P(A),P(A)>0,则称H(A)=-lnP(A)为A带来的信息量。

    定义2—完备事件组的熵

    设A1到An(n>=2)是条件S下的完备事件组,P(Ai)>0,对i=1,…n,则称P(A1…An)=-sumP(Ai)lnP(Ai),为完备事件组A1…An的熵。

    定理1—事件有相等的概率时结果的不确定性最大

    设A1到An(n>=2)是完备事件组,则当且仅当P(A1)=…P(An)时熵最大。

    即,若条件S下可能发生的互不相容的事件至少有两个,则当且仅当这些事件有相等的概率时结果的不确定性最大。

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